Introduction
Disasters and catastrophes are normally unpredictable, and in most cases, they cannot be averted; as a result, there is need to establish effective emergency management strategies. Due to the consequences associated with disasters, whether man-made or natural, there is an increasing need for communities to have appropriate strategies in order to address anticipated and sudden disasters (American Bar Association, 2010). Disaster preparedness and prevention strategies at the community level are normally determined by the prevalence of disasters in that region. In addition, the frequency of occurrence of such disasters plays an integral role in determining the types of emergency management approaches that a community can deploy prior to the occurrence or during the occurrence of a disaster (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007). The main objective of this research paper is to perform a hazard analysis of the disaster preparedness and prevention in the state of New Jersey. The paper discusses the assessment of vulnerabilities and threats of potential disasters that affect the state of New Jersey. The vulnerability and threats assessment will be based on flooding, hurricanes/ tropical storms and Earthquakes. The paper concludes by a disaster profiling of the identified potential disasters/events prioritizing them in order of security.
The profiling of the disasters and events within the state of New Jersey will be evaluated basing on the following table.
Highly likely There is 100 % probability that it will occur in the following year
Likely The probability of occurrence during the following 10 years lies between 10 to 100 %
possible The probability of occurrence in the following in the following 100 years lies between 1 and 10 %
Unlikely There is less than 1 % chance of occurrence in the following 100 years
Highly Unlikely There is little or no chance of occurrence in the following 100 years.

In addition, the following criteria highlighted in the table will be deployed in vulnerability and threat assessment of the three identified events/disasters that are likely to affect the state of New Jersey.
catastrophic Results to multiple deaths, severe damage of more than 50 % of property and shutdown of the major facilities in the town for at least one month
critical There are numerous severe injuries, facilities are completely shut down in a duration of at least two weeks and a severe damage of 25 % of property
Limited There are some injuries, facilities are completely shut down in a duration of at least one week, and severe property damage of about 10 %
Negligible There are minor injuries, facilities are only shut down for less than a day and property that is extremely damage is less than 10%

Flooding
Floods can be perceived as the buildup of water within water bodies, which ultimately results to surplus water flowing to the adjacent areas. The most likely form of flooding that is likely to affect the state of New Jersey is due to riverine, coastal and storm water flooding. Floods are usually common in low lying areas that are adjacent to water bodies such as rivers, lakes and oceans (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007). The state of New Jersey is susceptible to flooding due to the prevalence of tropical cyclones in the region. In the past, flooding has resulted to disruption of critical facilities for at least two weeks, and has resulted to intense damage to property. In addition, injuries have also been reported and the deployment of evacuation for more than one week. Flooding and its impacts on the area are most likely to increase and be devastating due to the fact that the prevalence of tropical hailstones and cyclones in the area is increasing (Haddow & Bullock, 2006). The ongoing construction and development within the state of New Jersey poses the risk of altering the natural drainage and the creation paths for excess water run-off. Approximately 80 % of the flood maps used in New Jersey are more than a decade old and may not provide the current risks. As a result, flooding should be an important aspect of New Jersey’s mitigation strategy. Therefore, it can be categorized as a high impact high probability event (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007).
The prevalence of flooding in any location primarily depends on various factors such as the climate, soli and geographical topology. In the coastal region of New Jersey, coastal flooding is a common occurrence, making it a high risk high impact event. In areas where precipitation falls during specific seasons annually, or in locations whereby annual flooding is due to the melting of snow, the probability of floods occurring are very high. In addition, the increasing sea level of the coastline at the rate of 3-4 mm annually makes increases its vulnerability to floods. The risk is further increased by the fact the most structures are erected in flood prone areas. Floods also impose other threats such as coastal erosions. Flooding can be considered to be a highly likely event in state of New Jersey (Haddow & Bullock, 2006).
Extreme Weather
Extreme temperatures are usually accompanied by high winds or high humidity depending on whether its occurrence is low or high. New Jersey constantly faces extreme cold, whereby the temperatures are less by 10 or more degrees that the normal average temperature. Extreme cold is considered as a severe weather of it continues for at least three days continuously. Extreme cold events are usually related with events inclined to the occurrence of snow and ice, which are diverse depending on the amount and the kind of rainfall, the speed of wind, its duration and temperatures of the atmosphere. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association report that at least 100 cases of snow and ice events have been experienced in Hunterdon County since 1994 (Richard & Aaron, 2011). These storms have caused human death and other property damages. For instance, during January 7th 1996, a blizzard killed 32 individuals and resulted to a property damage of approximately USD 18.8 million. During January 13th 1999, a winter storm cause injuries on 25 individuals and cause freeze which resulted thick ice layers, disruption of power lines, and road accidents due to visibility problems. The occurrence of extreme temperatures in the state of New Jersey is normally associated with the onset of other hazards such as wind storms and tropical cyclones (Richard & Aaron, 2011).
A vulnerability analysis reveals that New Jersey is 100 percent vulnerable to events associated with extreme weather such as extreme cold temperatures, snow and ice events. All of New Jersey residents are vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather. However, the citizens of New Jersey State who have lesser means such as elderly and poor are likely to be affected more by the extreme weather conditions. This is because they are vulnerable to injuries and death, possibly due to the lack of funds and the required support to overcome the problems imposed by severe weather storms. A single death due to extreme weather can be argued to be too costly, this is because New Jersey has the required resources and technology to help in mitigating potential deaths that may be imposed extreme weather (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007). A demographic analysis of New Jersey reveals that low income earners in New Jersey are most susceptible to the effects of Extreme weather because they lack the heating equipment and funds to relocate to environments that are warmer during such times (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007).
The probability of extreme weather events in New Jersey is highly likely, it is projected that future impacts of extreme temperatures are likely to be negligible, implying that it will result to minor human injuries and a disruption of critical facilities and services in the city. The significant challenge associated with severe weather is that it can impose a disruption on the distribution of critical services. This means that severe weather does not pose high threat levels in the state of New Jersey (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007).
Severe windstorms and tornadoes
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric administration, a tornado can be defined as a wind that is propagating violently forming a column of air in form that hangs from a cumulonimbus cloud to the ground. Severe windstorms usually comprise of a mixture of thunderstorms accompanied by winds moving at speed of at least 50 knots and hails at a diameter of at least ¾ inch. Severe Wind storms are a common occurrence in the New Jersey community, and can result to tornadoes and hail storms that can have an intense impact on the planning areas of the cities found in the state (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007). In addition, severe wind storms have the capability of initiating flash floods and lightning, which if not effectively addressed can disrupt the daily activities in the Surf City Community. The state of New Jersey has experienced at least 50 severe wind storms in the city’s planning area. The wind storms have been evident in various forms such as wind and lightening events that are result to heavy rains, which are bound to disrupt the power line and cause massive erosion. Generally, severe wind storms have an effect on the daily activities since strong winds normally foster road blockages and breakage of the power lines in the community (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007).
A 100 percent of New Jersey is vulnerable to windstorms and tornadoes. This implies that all critical facilities, populations and property are vulnerable to tornadoes and events associated with high events. Basing on the damages imposed by the previous occurrences of high wind events, it is arguably evident that New Jersey is susceptible to the wind storms and tornadoes. This is because severe wind storms have the capability of smashing glass windows, resulting to debris and disrupt telephone and power lines. The probability of a tornado occurring in New Jersey is 7 percent higher compared to the probability of a tornado hitting the entire United States. However, the key issue to address is that Tornadoes can result after the onset of tropical cyclones and severe wind storms, which are indeed prevalent in the state of New Jersey (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007).
Conclusion
A hazard analysis of the three identified events reveals that flooding has the highest level of vulnerability and threats in the state of New Jersey. This is because floods have high rates of prevalence and imposes significant property damage and human injuries, making it require a higher security priority compared to other events. Severe Windstorms comes second due to their potential damages of disrupting critical services and a lesser extent of property damage compared to flooding. In fact, severe windstorms are the most devastating atmospheric event that poses potential security concerns. Extreme weather poses the least security threat and vulnerability in New Jersey because the state has the resources and technologies that can be used in containing the events associated with extreme weather.

References
American Bar Association. (2010). Homeland security and emergency management: a legal guide for state and local governments. New York: American Bar Association.
Federal Emergency Management Agency. (2007). Mitigation. Retrieved September 10, 2011, from www.fema.gov/media/top-disasters.shtm
Haddow, G., & Bullock, J. (2006). Introduction to emergency management. Burlington, MA: Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann, Inc.
Richard, L., & Aaron, L. (2011). Vulnerability of New Jersey’s Coastal Habitats to Sea Level Rise . Retrieved September 10, 2011, from http://crssa.rutgers.edu/projects/coastal/sealevel/