Forecasting and business analysis Project description An important graduate quality that is stressed in this course is the ability to conform to acceptable community and business standards. Such standards include most notably the completion of professional-quality work on time. Excuses such as last-minute printer or file storage problems will not be accepted, as they would not be by a client in the real world. Students with extreme medical or personal emergencies may seek an extension on an assignment through your tutor. Students who wish to seek an extension on the basis of an ongoing medical or learning disability must present their Disability Access Plan to the course coordinator at least two weeks before the assignment is due, and preferably as soon as possible after the start of the study period. This will enable us to best tailor an assessment plan to fit your circumstances. FORECASTING AND BUSINESS ANALYSIS (ECON 2007) The main body of your report, including an executiv summary of 100 words, should not exceed 1100 words. The appendix of your report does not count for this limit. Your report should be supported by tables and/or gr aphs where appropriate. An electronic copy of your assignment is to be subm itted online using the Learnonline facility by the due date, while a hard copy of the identical version of your assignment is to be dropped into the pigeon hole marked as œAssignment Box located outside the office of the School of Commerce (WL2-57) by the due date. There is a penalty of 10% of the total mark for lat submission of each day. The only exception to this is if your tutor approves an exte nsion prior to the due date, for legitimate reasons based on documented evidence . So you should collect your documented evidence before you contact your tutor for an extension. Plagiarism is a specific form of academic misconduc t. If found, both parties will be penalised regardless of who copies from whom. The lectronic version of your submitted assignment will be used for a plagiarism check. The data file needed for this assignment is availab le on the course web site under the Assignment Information folder, where this document is located. Your Task In December, 2013, an international retail company, Tribeco, considered to expand its business into the Adelaide market. They approached you, a local renowned business consultant for a feasibility study. They are intere sted in your forecast of Recreational Good Retail Turnover (RGRT) in 2014 as a reference for t heir forecasted sale if they start their business operation in Adelaide. You are presented with the Australian Bureau of Sta tistics (ABS) information on Adelaide’s RGRT from June 1994 through December 2013. The info rmation on the unemployment rate (UR) and the average weekly earnings (AWE) per pers on in Adelaide are also available to you. Some Hints 1. As AWE is a quarterly series, while UR and RGRT are monthly, we need to make the frequency of all the time series consistent. 2. Following the protocol shown on pages 162-164 of Koop, test for a unit root for each of the variables. 3. Carry out econometric analysis and write down yo ur findings before you start writing your report. 4. A good report should be unfolded consistently an d logically around a main theme which covers your findings. 5. Create your business report, in which you will d ocument and discuss the results of your analysis. Your report should include the following items: An executive summary Introduction to the problem Justifications and discussions of methodologies Evaluation of results and discussions of limitati ons Conclusions The following are some guidelines that we will use to mark your assignments. This may help you in preparing your assignment. Main article Superb (80%) “ include all main results; accompanyi ng well-presented and meaningful graphs and tables; accurate, consistent and logical arguments; well-written. Good, solid report (60-70%) “ it is not superb in a ll aspects above, but an overall impression of the report suggests that it is a very good and s olid report. Acceptable, but with several weaknesses (40-50%) – it clearly contains some mistakes, but overall it covers most important findings. Quite inadequate (0-30%) “ the report contains many mistakes. An overall impression suggests that assignments were done with little eff ort and students do not understand most of the concepts introduced in the course. Appendix Include all necessary Excel outputs. Your appendix may include some technical materials. The appendix should be well sorted out and with bri ef descriptions, so that they are easy to follow.